Introducing NTH Capital
Welcome to NTH Capital! This is a substack of research ideas from a buyside analyst's eyes.
A quick intro
I am a buyside analyst working at a hedge fund in London, with a deep passion for hunting for actionable ideas based on market misunderstandings, over/underappreciations and clear catalysts.
What I love about the markets is the satisfaction from being objectively scored on being right or wrong, in the most meritocratic way. I truly believe that finding great investments is both an art and a science, distilling many aspects from understanding the industry, the company’s positioning, management’s psychology as well as the macro backdrop.
I’m a global generalist and enjoy learning about new industries and markets, especially where there are overlaps that may be overlooked by sector specialists.
I’m also a Chartered Accountant and CFA charterholder, and I like to believe the accounting edge allows me to see things from a differentiated angle.
What can you expect from the NTH Capital substack?
I will be publishing 1 research idea, on the long or short side, on listed companies every month. My objective is to understand, analyse and create investment ideas that are differentiated and defined by catalysts.
I want to provide research from a true buyside perspective, without the typical sellside biases (eg. 90% “Overweight” reccoms or being an extension of IR).
My process & investment framework
On the long side, I tend to look for ideas with attributes including:
Attractive sector/ company
Stand out valuation
Differentiated view
Optionality from hidden gems
Strong management that can be trusted
Clearly defined catalysts for the thesis
And on the short side, I look for fractures and pressures. Fractures can include:
Poor quality earnings
Weak AND deteriorating balance sheet
Unsustainable valuation
Misaligned management
Add in pressures like deteriorating growth at sector &/or company level, or even just simply a weaker macro environment, and those fractures can turn into strong differentiated views with clear catalysts.
Wrapping up
Whilst I’ve been investing since 2016, I’m deeply aware that it takes years to evaluate how good an investor really is. A wise investor once remarked that a person’s market view or style can often be influenced by the time at which they entered the market. Those who entered during the GFC are likely more cynical than those who entered just before the dotcom boom. Well, my training period has been a mix of the longest bull run on record, the black swan “event” that was Covid, and the consequent hangover and regime shift. It is yet to be determined what that means for my style!
I would love feedback and challenge on my research, particularly if you disagree. I’m always looking for the other side of the debate.
Thanks for your support!